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    October 12

    James Tybout印象记

    一天的lecture+seminar下来,收获很大。和James Tybout共度了大半天,直观地感受了其研究过程的各种细节,包括理论推导和计算机编程的每一个步骤。和其他经济学领域一样,贸易领域的理论和经验研究也正在变得越来越微观化。James Tybout及其合作者对贸易领域的一大贡献是用动态最优化方法得到企业行为(特别是企业进入退出市场)的模型刻画,借由此来进行结构参数的估计。这种微观化的研究进路是经济学研究走向自然科学化甚至工程化的必然体现,其优点自然不言而喻,但是就其缺陷而言,抛开这里面的经济哲学,感觉仍然还有许多问题需要面对。比如行为模型的复杂性带来参数数量的增加,与此相应的估计的准确性也会下降,同时对计算机的运算性能也是一大考验。但是不管怎么样,还是很受James本人的认真精神的鼓舞。这位看起来大约五十出头的学者,个子很高,但是人非常的瘦,瘦的程度在欧美经济学界同年龄的学者中很少见到,也许是工作太辛苦的原因吧。

    Comments (8)

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    Hao Lanwrote:
    .... 微观化、动态化、可计算化。就个人而言,我喜欢第三步,但是却又不得不去面对前两个问题。个人都有个人苦恼。哈哈
    Oct. 17
    Zheng WANGwrote:
    是啊,混口饭吃,经济学的分工现在是越来越细了,如果不是大牛,只有好的合作才能做出更好的研究
    Oct. 14
    Chen Lingwrote:
    其实大家都是混口饭吃 lol
    Oct. 13
    blueskywrote:
    深表同意。喜欢简单的模型,深邃的思想,最好再带一点幽默。
    Oct. 13
    Zheng WANGwrote:
    我也是这样认为,一旦在技术上走得过份艰深,就会失去经济学本身所应该有的美感。经济学应该回到古典。
    Oct. 13
    子知 李wrote:
    自然科学化还好,工程化还是算了。作为基础学科,经济学还是当物理,化学比较好,化工的活还是给政府干比较合适。在缺乏洞见的情况下,经济学家们只好把现有的模型做的细一些。越来越多的参数,无法掩盖日益苍白的思想。我还是喜欢简洁的模型~~
    Oct. 13
    Zheng WANGwrote:
    很赞同金戈兄所归纳的三点,这个现在宏观经济学里非常的普遍。现在要搞宏观研究,动态,模拟,计量,不学一身技术简直没法入门。但是对现实的解释力以及预测力似乎仍然很不让人满意,比如这次的金融危机。好像是Krugman说的吧,过去三十年宏观经济学最大的贡献就是没有贡献,如果还没有产生坏影响的话:)
    Oct. 13
    blueskywrote:
    看来很多经济学领域的理论研究都有类似的倾向:微观化、动态化、可计算化。就个人而言,我喜欢前两步,讨厌第三步,哈哈
    Oct. 13

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